Follow to zipp's post: Team Tourney Playoff Scenarios

By Andrew Schultz · July 24, 2009

Based on discussion here, which is probably more interesting than below, I present the team tourney prediction table. I offer no crystal ball because I don't want to anger the weauxf gods, as stated by Oliver's Woofing Theorem.

So, before the judges render all this speculation moot, here goes! Oh, and if anyone can figure how to get rid of the space below here, I'd be grateful.

Top row = 1st initials of team name, wins/losses, opposition remaining record, individual matches won and individual judge votes gained.

b
d
e
f
j
o
s
w
W/L
Oppo
Match
Pts
bluberry
X1W+4L=2W-3W+7-6-5+3-18-4722

dagoss
1L-X5+3L+6-2L-7+4W=1-37-5412

EmP
4W=5-X6+7-3L+2L-1W+2-23-9615

Felix
2L+3W-6-X5+4L=1L-7+1-34-8415

Janus
3L-6+7+5-X1W+4L=2L-1-34-8518

Overdrive
7+2W+3W-4W=1L-X5+6-3-18-4721

Suskie
6+7-2W+1W+4W=5-X3W-4-07-51028

will
5-4L=1L-7-2W+6+3L+X1-37-5414

WL=win/loss +=home = = neutral -=road

First things to note: all teams are in control of their own destinies, except dagoss's team. They could go 3-0 and be locked out by EmP going 3-0. The people in the upper echelon could all trade losses, and it'd be a 4 way tie for 5-2. If dagoss wins in week 7, and Suskie/Overdrive/Blueberry go 1-1 in their little round robin in the next 3 weeks, and EmP wins...that'll do it. If will defeats Bluberry, then if Bluberry wins vs Overdrive and Suskie and Overdrive beats Suskie, boom.

Will's team, if they go 4-3, will have to wait on tiebreaks. But going 4-3 gives Bluberry/Overdrive 2 losses each, and those two teams still have to meet.

But what about Janus and Felix?

Well, they have a little 3-way of their own (oh stop it) with EmP, so they can't ALL go 3-0. This of course discounts match and point differential, etc. We have an interesting dynamic where 3 of the top 4 have a round robin and so do 3 of the bottom 4. There will be bloodshed.

So who looks in best shape? I'd say EmP, but just barely. I think will and dagoss are in big trouble because 1) EmP can shut them out and 2) they each face two teams with winning records. Past performance is not a guarantee of future blah blah blah, but as a side note, they can't knock out their competitors for that last playoff spot so easily.

The match with Felix will be huge in determining playoff running. EmP has home field advantage, and a win there would make it very hard for anyone to catch up. But I wouldn't underestimate Zigfried just pulling out an awesome review or two, Felix is a very good writer, and randxian's done well as a 2nd rounder. They just haven't put it together yet.

But what about tiebreaks?

Janus: 1 win, 5 individual matches, 18 points
EmP: 2 wins, 6 individual matches, 15 points
Felix: 1 win, 4 individual matches, 18 points
Dagoss: 1 win, 4 individual matches, 15 points

Wait! Why is EmP in second with the most matches won? Because any team that wins gets a net of 2.19-0.81(average score of matches so far) = 1.38 wins, putting his guys below. Incidentally, the average score of a match is 5.94-3.06 for the winner. So if felix/dagoss do get the roundup, gaining 2 matches, they'll probably jump over EmP. If not, they don't. Lots of tiebreaks to consider. And of course if Janus wins 1 match less than Felix, Felix probably jumps ahead on points won.

So EmP's one-game advantage in the standings is not so towering as it looks. There's a lot to play for, and blowouts can change the complexion of the playoff picture. Every vote counts! For want of a grammar editor, the playoffs were missed...or something!

Also, Suskie has a sizeable advantage in the tiebreaks, as of now. A 3-0 loss to Overdrive might change it, but if you consider each team's remaining match against the other 5(Bluberry being #3) Suskie would have to lose 0-3 and either Overdrive/Bluberry would have to go 3-0 to turn the tables. Since only 3 of 16 matches have been 3-0, with Team Suskie compiling two sweeps(vs will and Felix,) this is highly unlikely even though Bluberry owns the other--over dagoss.

Incidentally, in a worst case scenario, Team Suskie can still miss the playoffs, but everything and I mean EVERYTHING would have to go a certain way. Dagoss going 3-0, Team Suskie losing lots of tiebreaks, and EmP beating Felix/Janus and losing to dagoss.

Also, it is possible we will have a 3-4 team in the playoffs.

EmP loses to dagoss, Janus beats dagoss, Felix defeats Will, so dagoss/will 3-4 at best
EmP defeats Felix defeats Janus defeats EmP
5 way tie if dagoss d. Suskie and will d. Bluberry and overdrive

*note: I think I have the math right. I checked with Jerec's chart for the points. But if there are errors, and there probably are, let me know. This can be updated easily for next week.

Comments 22

JANUS2 Jul 24, 2009

um, can you explain what the numbers and letters in the grid mean for us stupid people?

OH WAIT I understand now. I was being stupid. I see numbers and letters and my mind goes blank.

aschultz Blogger Jul 24, 2009

It can still be cleared up. So I tried to. First time I've done this so obviously it can all be adjusted.

Felix_Arabia Jul 24, 2009

This year's TT is special. I don't believe we've ever had a weekly, in-depth preview for each individual and team match. I'm almost certain a mathematical analsys this detailed has never been provided. In my initial reading of this topic, I see a lot of interesting stuff. Used to be the playoff picture was pretty clear toward the latter half of the season. This year we have a few big winners and a bunch of teams struggling for position, so that makes the playoff race all the more interesting. You know the math is compelling if a Hoosier is saying good things about a Boilermaker's work. Thanks for posting this, Schultz.

Also, have there been any new additions to Basketbawful recently?

jerec Jul 24, 2009

I'm glad I'm just a judge. This mathematical prediction stuff would do my head in.

aschultz Blogger Jul 24, 2009

Felix...thanks! I hoped someone else would enjoy this. I think the competition's been very interesting, and it's good people still have something to fight for. People still will after week 5--just a few less--and since EmP explained the tiebreaks, it makes things a bit clearer.

Basketbawful's Living Large is on part 14. The narrator worries about something that might've gotten Gene Keady mad in the last installment. It's very funny that he still doesn't say the university name but dances around it a lot.

This is the first time with previews? I'm surprised nobody did it earlier, but I think without the previews I wouldn't have done this. I know there were interviews or some such, but the previews are free of inside jokes and it's fun to read my ideas vs what the previews say. Both previewers have done a great job.

Jerec...actually I took time out from writing a review/FAQ, when I hit my head on a wall. It got to a point where just writing down the possibilities would waste less time than wondering about it occasionally.

randxian Jul 24, 2009

Okay, I must be completley inept because that chart makes no sense to me at all.

I'll just stick to writing half ass reviews about anime nobody cares about.

aschultz Blogger Jul 24, 2009

Oops, that's what I get for trying to cut corners and be too succinct.

Basically, the 8 columns are the teams, sorted alphabetically by captain's initial. The first column after that, current record. The second, remaining opponents' record. The third, individual matches won, and the fourth, total points won.

4L= = team to the left lost to team above in week 4 on neutral side

3W+ = team to the left beat team above in week 3 at home

2L- = team to the left lost to team above in week 2 on the road

5+ = team to the left will play team above in week 5, at home.

randxian Jul 24, 2009

Okay, now I get it. Cool beans.

Halon Jul 24, 2009

Well since Dagoss is playing EmP this week and they both can't go 3-0 does that mean it's impossible for Suskie to miss playoffs?

I haven't even looked at the math yet so I might've missed something. After week 6 results are in I'll take a good look over everything and make a post regarding the playoffs unless someone else wants to volunteer again. You guys are great support!

aschultz Blogger Jul 24, 2009

Sportsman--nice catch! I don't know where my brain goofed, but here's what I meant.

EmP is 2-2, Dagoss 1-3, so Dagoss winning out and EmP winning his other two put them at 4-3. So if Suskie loses out, someone would lose on tiebreaks.

Similarly, Felix and dagoss, who don't play each other, could win out to go 4-3, meaning Suskie could lose on tiebreaks after three consecutive losses. So someone with a winning record could miss the playoffs, and someone with a losing record could make it.

Incidentally in the EmP/dagoss case, the loser of Bluberry/overdrive losing to will would create a 4-way tie, and if will beats the other guy, that'd be a 5 way tie.

I've already caught a few others math/analysis errors I've made, so if you see anything further that might be wrong, let me know.

Felix_Arabia Jul 24, 2009

Part 14?! That's like . . . SEVEN new parts for me to catch up on!

bluberry Jul 24, 2009

next week, I expect ε-δ arguments.

this font makes epsilons and deltas look like titties and butt plugs.

aschultz Blogger Jul 24, 2009

Ahh fudgesickles, that's just a ploy to distract me from next week's big match.

You'll get plain arithmetic and like it!

Cause if I give you epsilon-delta, next you'll be asking for confidence intervals or regression analysis.

bluberry Jul 24, 2009

no, stats is lame. after econometrics and calc-based probability, I'm done with that shit forever.

can the plain arithmetic be mod 4?

aschultz Blogger Jul 24, 2009

Mod 4? With 5 rounds done by next week, the decimals would've all been nice and neat like .2 and such. They might get messy now.

Hmm, let's see.

1/5, oops, 1/11 = .03030303 base 4...
1/10, oops, 1/22 = .0121212 base 4

...okay, that's not too bad.

As long as you promise to proofread it for errors. Instead of your own review, or your teammates'.

bluberry Jul 24, 2009

I'll only proofread fields.

and I'd call you out for thinking I meant doing it base 4 instead of mod 4, but this conversation is nerdy enough already thank you very much.

zippdementia Jul 25, 2009

Hm... nope, don't get it. I saw a couple equations and I walked away with my eyes tightly closed.

That said, I maintain my belief that unless EmP loses big in the next couple weeks, the finals are already set. I suppose it's possible that any of the current top four could lose their position if they did poorly enough, but I doubt Suskie or Blueberry are going to fall that far, and OD has a nice cushiony lead in. EmP, to me, is the only one in any immediate danger, and I think they'll do well this week and against FRZ, unless FRZ starts upping their game a bit more.

randxian Jul 25, 2009

unless FRZ starts upping their game a bit more.

Ha! Saying we don't have game are you? Well... *Suddenly remembers his team is 1-3.*

Okay, maybe you have a point. But we will prevail!

Felix_Arabia Jul 25, 2009

Both teams played hard.

zigfried Jul 25, 2009

...upping...our game?

..........

//Zig

aschultz Blogger Jul 25, 2009

As long as the catch phrases don't seep into the actual reviews, they can't be THAT harmful. Can they?

By the way, in a mismatch of reviews, how can we tell if the winning review is running up the score?

zippdementia Jul 26, 2009

See, it's the over use of things like periods and confusion that keeps losing you your matches.

You'll get your shot at me come week 7... if you dare to take it.