aschultz

About Me:

Sorry, but I haven't yet shared the information about myself that would typically display here. Check back later to see if that changes, or if I instead choose to remain an enigma.


Bluberry pancakes this weekend
August 27, 2009

If you don't mind tire tracks stamped "Team Suskie" on them.

I think Bluberry picked good matchups--my little statistical whatchamajigger says there's a range of .12 expected wins, based on the ratings and so forth. Actually it had the ideal matchup for him switching True and me, but it was minimally better. Straight up matchups would've been best for Team Suskie, but with a close 1.64-1.36 match expected (in favor of the good guys,) a surprise good review--to either side--can tip the scales unexpectedly. So, as before, the numbers are neat and shiny but don't mean too much.

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2 comments


The penultimate TT ratings, for amusement only
August 25, 2009

Provided with little comment and the usual disclaimer that anyone is capable of a whopping good review. Not much movement, which is not surprising with fewer matches this week AND with more overall matches stabilizing ratings. left = draft pick, right = rank. Nonplayers may lose or win a few points based on how their opponents or opponents' opponents did.

Only comment here is how well zigfried did despite everyone throwing their best at him. These formulas don't take into account who focused on which opponent or who saved their best review for when.

suskie 2332 c
1 bbobb 2207 7
boo 2168 c
janus 2137 c
emp 2116 c
2 zig 2092 3
3 true 2078 8
4 venter 2078 6
5 zipp 2070 1
6 woodhouse 2063 4
od 2062 c

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3 comments


Gaming, and the helplessness of illiteracy
August 17, 2009

So a fellow guide writer at GameFAQs mentioned an NES RPG called Shadow Brain. It's part Japanese, part English. It's pretty paint-by-numbers, so I'm able to figure out most of what to do. I was able to find which bytes did what--a lot of the game is, oddly, in English. It'll have text like "ID A" and so forth. So you know you have to get ID Card A. There are also lots of pictures with devices that hook up to a computer, and you have a sort of depiction of the Internet before it really existed. Games like that are neat, though Neuromancer did it better.

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GUTS's Lord of the Sword review
August 14, 2009

Well Zigfried's topic finally pushed me over the edge. Some of GUTS's reviews go too far for me. But this one has something special. It's a swipe at Masters, but then they became friends a month later, so that's okay.

Archive.org is a wonderful site.

==============================

Unlike the other person that reviewed this title, I won't make you wade through 16 paragraphs of irrelevant ''wit'' just to read 3 sentences about the game. Want to know if it's good or not? Here's the lowdown.

GAMEPLAY

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2 comments


How much is TT home field advantage worth?
August 14, 2009

To follow up on my post about ratings, I thought it'd be interesting to see how much home field might be worth. So with the ratings in hand from the previous post, I schlopped together all 6 matchup possibilities given 6 ratings. Here is what I found, in terms of expected wins based on the formula expected wins=1/(10^(diff/400)):

Suskie vs OD
1.812 = maximum (Suskie vs Venter, True vs Belisarios, ASchultz vs Overdrive)
1.713 = minimum (Suskie vs Belisarios, True vs Venter, ASchultz vs Overdrive)

Boo vs EmP
1.713 = maximum (Boo vs EmP, Woodhouse vs DoI, Espiga vs DE)
1.657 = minimum (Boo vs DE, Woodhouse vs EmP, Espiga vs DoI)

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8 comments


Final ELO-style team tourney ratings
August 11, 2009

If you're curious how ELO ratings are calculated, look on wikipedia...basically, I estimated them with 200 runs through, giving everyone a 2000 rating to start. They don't seem to change appreciably after that, so here are the ratings and rankings. (c) = captain, 1st#=relative rating of draftee, 2nd#=order draftee was picked.

(c) suskie 2365
1 bbobb 2212 7
(c) boo 2147
(c) janus 2134
(c) emp 2121
2 venter 2093 6
3 zig 2092 3
4 zipp 2058 1
5 doi 2051 12
6 woodhouse 2047 4
7 true 2039 8
(c) od 2032
8 espiga 2003 13
(c) felix 1975
9 belisarios 1966 11
10 wolfqueen 1955 2
11 aschultz 1948 9
12 sashanan 1940 15
13 randxian 1901 16
14 de 1871 5
(c) dagoss 1865
15 turducken 1842 17
16 disco 1813 10
(c) will 1802
17 vortex 1729 14

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7 comments


Week 7 preview: bit late for a preview, eh?
August 09, 2009

Especially if it's biased and deliberately slanted for maximum tiebreak advantage to Team Suskie. The judges are, apparently, almost done anyway. If they are not, they should strive to ignore this topic wholeheartedly, because they know what I am going to say.

First, I predict Team Suskie to beat Team Dagoss, because if I picked us to lose, I would be picking at least one of my teammates to lose. That would be no way to show faith in them! If 2-1, it would show that I think we'd just barely win, and psychological tests show that when people say their team'll barely win, they really believe they're going to lose, or their team tends to lose more than half the time. Ergo, I am morally obligated to predict a 3-0 match win.

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17 comments


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