...and of course I had the skeleton up from last week.

If this is too technical and dry, chalk it up to me being a great guy not stealing the thunder from zippdementia's preview. However, in the big picture, NOBODY IS OUT YET.

SUMMARY: we had an upset with a 1-3 defeating a 3-1, and a 3-1 used home field well to squeak by a 4-0, which makes things interesting for the last few weeks at the top AND bottom of the table. EmP made my banging on about tiebreaks that much more rubbish now; an EmP-hatic (may this pun make nobody but Team Overdrive groan :) ) 3-0 win will do that. The game with Felix will be for lots of marbles, but not all, re: the final playoff spot.

Top row = 1st initials of team name, wins/losses, opposition remaining record, individual matches won and individual judge votes gained.


b
d
e
f
j
o
s
w
W/L
Oppo
Match
Pts
bluberry
X1W+4L=2W-3W+7-6-5L+3-28-2926

dagoss
1L-X5L+3L+6-2L-7+4W=1-45-5413

EmP
4W=5W-X6+7-3L+2L-1W+3-23-7923

Felix
2L+3W-6-X5W+4L=1L-7+2-35-5621

Janus
3L-6+7+5L-X1W+4L=2L-1-44-6518

Overdrive
7+2W+3W-4W=1L-X5W+6-4-15-5925

Suskie
6+7-2W+1W+4W=5L-X3W-4-14-61133

will
5W-4L=1L-7-2W+6+3L+X2-36-4619

WL=win/loss +=home = = neutral -=road

PLAYOFF SEEDING:

BLUBERRY's two losses mean he could miss the playoffs. The loss to will was a big opportunity squandered. He's got the teams with the two best records up next, so nothing's a given. Still, a win and he's in. See the Suskie argument below--not quite as many votes(he'll get at least 2 wins+4 votes for a win) but it's enough. If everyone goes 3-4, though, and he loses 1-2 in each match, he should be ok.

EMP can pretty much wrap things up with a win, eliminating Felix, Janus and dagoss. Will is down 3 individual wins to EmP for tiebreaks, so he will need a sweep somewhere. He can win out, but sweeps seem unlikely, so maybe the throwaway review will be more damaging than originally thought. Also, EmP can maybe count on someone dropping from above. His tiebreaks are the best--as many matches with one less win. Bluberry vs Overdrive is nice for him, especially if Bluberry loses.

OVERDRIVE is still down on tiebreaks (2 games, 8 votes) from Suskie and needs someone else to beat Suskie for a 1-seed. Overdrive going 3-0 8-1 and Suskie 2-1 4-5 would make a tie, but I wouldn't count on that. Most of this tiebreak is due to Suskie's 14-1 votes, though True and ASchultz both have one more 3-0 than 0-3. Still, Overdrive is in if he beats Will. He can probably lose both matches 1-2 and be okay.

SUSKIE has the inside track to the #1 seed. An overdrive win puts him in the playoffs and an overdrive loss gives him a great shot at a #1 seed if he wins either final match. So, how would Suskie miss the playoffs? Suskie has frozen out dagoss and janus, and one of Felix and Will goes by the wayside in week 7. The remaining team must make up 5 matches in 2 weeks, then either 12 or 14 votes. Amusingly, Suskie could carry his team with two late round wins and even if True and ASchultz go 0-3 both, that'd shut out the last team. Suskie may wind up rooting hard for Bluberry in week 7 if he loses to Bluberry in week 6, though. If Suskie wins and Overdrive loses next week, Suskie's clinched #1--UNLESS EmP wins both his games, and decisively, AND Suskie loses to dagoss. EmP doesn't have the votes now, but if he can somehow clinch 3 wins more than Suskie(say, 3-0 3-0 vs 2-1 1-2) then we have a surprise comeback #1 seed. Still, Suskie's big tiebreak edge mean his team just has to take care of business. Though that is not trivial.

PLAYOFF QUALIFYING:
JANUS can still make the playoffs if
he wins both matches
(Felix d EmP, Will d Felix, Overdrive d Will) or (2 of the previous and Bluberry loses twice)
He gets hella tiebreaks

DAGOSS can still make the playoffs if
he wins twice
(EmP loses twice,) Will d Felix, Overdrive d Will or (2 of the previous and Bluberry loses twice)
hella tiebreaks

WILL can make the playoffs at 3-4(similar scenarios as above, helped by Bluberry losing twice, assuming Will's loss is to Overdrive) but he has a chance to win both remaining games. I'm pulling for him to take out Overdrive to make the final week pandemonium. This is for general interest and has nothing to do with last round's heartbreaker. I just want it things be interesting for everyone!

Note WILL can miss the playoffs at 4-3 if EmP wins once, Bluberry wins once, and Overdrive wins enough matches. For instance, will going 2-1 would be shut out by Bluberry's two wins and Overdrive losing 1-2 in his other game, too. That random review this round may cost them!

FELIX needs to sweep EmP to gain the tiebreak edge. However, two wins put him in pretty good position, and if bluberry loses once, Felix could win that 3-way tiebreak. It's a situation where he has 40% chance of winning a tiebreak with EmP or Bluberry, and a 40% chance of losing to both of them. Losing to will next week wouldn't kill everything, but he'd obviously need help--and he'd need to avoid a sweep.

So 1 of Janus and Dagoss will be eliminated next week. Felix has a must-win game. Will is most at others' mercy. EmP and Bluberry probably are safe with a win. And Overdrive and Suskie can take nothing for granted in their current horse-race for the #1 seed.

Well, I should probably go proofread my review instead of this, but if there are errors, let me know. Everyone else, hope you enjoy this! Especially Bluberry's team, to the point of forgetting to proofread/refine/write your own reviews.

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Feedback
	JANUS2 - July 26, 2009 (01:24 PM) Team Janus is enjoying these predictions a lot more than the actual results! I think I might start supporting Team Overdrive, if only so that I can say that we were the only team to beat the winners.
	Felix_Arabia - July 26, 2009 (03:26 PM) Yet another compelling look at the playoffs, Schultz. Good work, man. I figure for simplicity's sake my team should just beat our remaining opponents and then cast hexes upon those ahead of us.
	bluberry - July 26, 2009 (03:38 PM) I think you should proofread this instead of your review.
	aschultz - July 26, 2009 (04:27 PM) Janus--Why not root for us too? Then you can say you got more votes than the team you beat. Felix--it was fun for me too. "Just win" of course is the main thing, but sometimes it's nice to know what's in your hands and what's not. This week was a lot easier, of course. Anyway, I wanted to do *something* and wasn't ready to be a captain or judge, so here goes. I'm seriously considering being a judge next year (already) because this sort of thing is a lot of fun for me & I'd have the template set for the number grinding. Maybe we could even have Monte Carlo simulations like at Baseball Prospectus. Though I'd have no clue of the formula. Bluberry--I would revise this, but OMG MY REVIEW IS SO FUN TO KEEP PROOFREADING AND PROOFREADING I EVEN FORGET TO GLOAT ABOUT BEATING MY NEXT OPPONENT 3-0