You saw last week's. The only real shifts are what you'd expect. I drop for getting swept, Espiga goes up for 1-2 against Suskie, who drops slightly, and True flipflops with woodhouse.
suskie 2303 c
1 bbobb 2211 7
boo 2197 c
janus 2141 c
emp 2124 c
2 zig 2095 3
3 true 2094 8
4 venter 2079 6
od 2067 c
5 zipp 2065 1
6 woodhouse 2046 4
7 doi 2015 12
felix 1994 c
8 espiga 1980 13
9 wolfqueen 1964 2
10 aschultz 1956 9
11 sashanan 1930 15
12 de 1912 5
13 belisarios 1895 11
14 randxian 1876 16
dagoss 1875 c
15 turducken 1873 17
16 disco 1813 10
will 1798 c
17 vortex 1695 14
More final observations, by the numbers:
Janus was the best 2nd-best player on his team. True was the 2nd-best 2nd-best.
Espiga was the "best worst." I was the 2nd-best worst.
Bbobb was a fantastic pick. Disco1960 didn't work out so well, but looking through his reviews I didn't find one I disliked. And if Disco had beaten me in round 4, where Sportsman admitted to making a tough choice, Team Janus goes to the playoffs in place of Team EmP--all other things being equivalent. Team Janus had 2 of the very best and 1 at 2nd-bottom but seemed to lose at the exact wrong times.
DoI stumbled late while being a great pick before. EmP got the order wrong for drafting his teammates.
Despite bluberry being disappointed Espiga wrote nothing new, Espiga did well by the numbers. The numbers don't reflect that he may've been running on fumes after his best reviews were out there, though.
I'm not sure whether having such strong teammates helped me or hurt my individual ratings. I would guess it hurt me--I'd guess everyone brings their best against the team at the top of the standings. While I'd hoped to be 12th or better in these final standings, that vs winning the team tourney is a no brainer. My teammates helped me get better with their own reviews, their comments on mine, and their faith I could do my thing. And that's the sort of thing numbers can't capture, blah, blah.
I've mentioned I enjoyed my opponents' reviews vs me more than theirs in other rounds. Looking over things again convinces me I was pretty objective about this. I also enjoyed facing different people in the playoffs than the regular season. Again, I didn't get to mix things up as much as I'd hoped, but there will be future tournaments for that.
Woodhouse seemed to be clutch, and I'm surprised his rating was relatively low. Unfortunately I never tweaked the ratings so that it factors how much your wins mean to the team. I think footballoutsiders.com has a method for that, but it's beyond the time I have, and it's probably proprietary anyway. I just worked out expected value. Woodhouse's loss to disco1960 probably pulled him down significantly, yet Team Boo still won--bad luck again there, Team Janus.
I also summed up the team individual ratings to give an index, and the results are about what you'd expect. I dropped turducken/vortex to 24th--that's where their composite rating went--and bumped disco and Will up one.
1 suskie 24
2 boo 28
2 janus 28
4 EmP 35
5 overdrive 36 (overdrive overperforms: good team management got them to 3rd)
6 felix 39
7 will 50
8 dagoss 60
One other thing: ironically, in the playoffs, a teammate winning dropped one of your opponent's ratings. That is, if you had different matchups the next time around.
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bluberry - August 30, 2009 (09:10 PM) Woodhouse's loss to disco1960 probably pulled him down significantly, yet Team Boo still won--bad luck again there, Team Janus this is where Espiga was essential. also, this is why I'm not too keen on mathematical models of shit like this. DOI was more crucial to his team than certain people ranked above him were to theirs, and Team EmP would not have made the finals without him. I also don't see how BELI was that low, because he did an excellent job, occasional throat fuck tangents aside. no offense to your work with these, it's very interesting. but it doesn't even come close to telling the whole story. |
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woodhouse - August 30, 2009 (09:32 PM) True was actually already above me after the semis, so no flipping or flopping there. I'm not that surprised by my position. Boo did nearly all the heaviest lifting, and I only had 1 sweep victory. |
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aschultz - August 30, 2009 (10:00 PM) Bluberry--you're right. This model doesn't really come close, and it doesn't take into account stuff like Team Suskie half-preparing for the playoffs with a berth clinched, or Suskie's various decisions on when to use his new reviews and when to go to the backlog depending on his opponent. Who knows, maybe next year I'll have a more accurate model. Weighted averages are not hard, but how to determine weights is. Something like doubling or tripling the importance of a match breaker game could really put a spin on things. Of course, it'd still leave out the whole story, strategizing etc., as pretty much any stats do. Especially since there is only points for/against and nothing for sub-components of writing. Maybe someone can improve on me for next year. I'm definitely open to suggestions. Woodhouse--oops, I didn't pay attention to my own numbers. |
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bluberry - August 31, 2009 (01:50 AM) let me take PDEs and get back to you, Schultz. |
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