If you don't mind tire tracks stamped "Team Suskie" on them.
I think Bluberry picked good matchups--my little statistical whatchamajigger says there's a range of .12 expected wins, based on the ratings and so forth. Actually it had the ideal matchup for him switching True and me, but it was minimally better. Straight up matchups would've been best for Team Suskie, but with a close 1.64-1.36 match expected (in favor of the good guys,) a surprise good review--to either side--can tip the scales unexpectedly. So, as before, the numbers are neat and shiny but don't mean too much.
Team Suskie is in an interesting position, though, and it reminds me of the 1989 Green Bay Packers when I used to follow football. They vaguely needed three teams to lose in the last week of the season. Each was favored, though the chance all three would win was low, and each wound up winning. Eagles beat the Cardinals, Rams scored a late TD in a seesaw game vs the Patriots, whose QB missed a wide open receiver the last play of the game, and Minnesota held on against Cincinnati, in a Monday night game no less--the football gods strung me out til the end! Thus did the Packers lose the privilege of getting killed by the 49ers in the divisional playoffs.
So ironically, the Packers, who managed wonderfully BS comebacks against other teams' prevent defenses all year--the best being a loss actually, 38-7 to the Rams to "only" 41-38, couldn't mount the season-long comeback that put them in the playoffs. Next year, the NFL added another wild card team. Three years later, the Pack WAS that sixth team. They suffered the first of three flattenings by the Cowboys, who then punked out and lost to the third-year Panthers rather than let the Pack have some revenge in their Super Bowl year.
How is this possibly relevant? Well, one of True and me needs to win or Team Suskie is cooked--with the ideal matchup we'd both have a ~40% chance, so hoping Suskie beats Espiga (our best shot based on past results but obviously no gimme) it'd be bad to bet straight-up on either of us, but both of us--that's worth a straight up bet to break even.
Math trivia: if p(true wins)=p(i win)=p(woodhouse/blu both win) then p=1/the golden ratio.
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randxian - August 27, 2009 (08:43 PM) Reading the title made me hungry for actual blueberry pancakes. Then again, I'm always hungry for something. |
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bluberry - August 27, 2009 (10:01 PM) I've got plenty of bluberry pancakes for both of you boys. |
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