How much is TT home field advantage worth?
August 14, 2009

To follow up on my post about ratings, I thought it'd be interesting to see how much home field might be worth. So with the ratings in hand from the previous post, I schlopped together all 6 matchup possibilities given 6 ratings. Here is what I found, in terms of expected wins based on the formula expected wins=1/(10^(diff/400)):

Suskie vs OD
1.812 = maximum (Suskie vs Venter, True vs Belisarios, ASchultz vs Overdrive)
1.713 = minimum (Suskie vs Belisarios, True vs Venter, ASchultz vs Overdrive)

Boo vs EmP
1.713 = maximum (Boo vs EmP, Woodhouse vs DoI, Espiga vs DE)
1.657 = minimum (Boo vs DE, Woodhouse vs EmP, Espiga vs DoI)

So home field advantage vs "on the road" offers a potential .06 to .10 shift in expected votes. Home field advantage is half that (neutral would be in the middle,) or .03 to .05. That makes 1% to 1.7%.

Compare this to college basketball, where home field is worth about 3.5 points, and teams average 70 points a game, roughly. Home field offers a shift of 3.5/140=2.5%.

Or compare it to college football, where I'd guess teams totaled 45 points per game, with HFA being 3 points. That is 3/45 or a whopping 7%.

Given that it's hard to quantify how good some writing is, or how to appeal to a certain judge(who may rightfully get tired of seeing too much of style X and say so,) or how ratings are still bobbling up and down, home field advantage would seem statistically insignificant. Especially since any one person can sit down and write something brilliant, or draw a blank, in any given week.

But that's a reason home field advantage can be wildly significant and decisive, as the home team may have a secret weapon review to spring on the Other Guys.

So it appears home field is nice, but it's absolutely no substitute for writing well. Which we knew. But I guess it's quantified a bit now.

Most recent blog posts from Andrew Schultz...

EmP EmP - August 14, 2009 (08:59 AM)
OD leads his squad -- not Venter.

Has there been a coup?
overdrive overdrive - August 14, 2009 (10:11 AM)
Yeah.....WHAT THE FUCK!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!!

Just for that, I'm actually going to start trying to win matches now!
aschultz aschultz - August 14, 2009 (10:41 AM)
I don't know what you guys are talking about. You can't prove I didn't write "Suskie vs Venter" before editing it to say "Suskie vs Overdrive."

And even if I did make that mistake, which you can't prove, I will let you sort out the pedantic details that DONT MATTER BECAUSE TEAM SUSKIE HAS HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE ANYWAY.

(Actually, Overdrive, I noticed Venter's rating was above you. So I assumed he was the captain. It's been a long tourney. But the math is right. Because my computer did that part, not me.)
zippdementia zippdementia - August 14, 2009 (02:00 PM)
(Actually, Overdrive, I noticed Venter's rating was above you.)

Way to put the ol' foot in the mouth, Aschultz ^_^
overdrive overdrive - August 14, 2009 (02:07 PM)
Yeah.....if you're trying to mollify me, pointing out little things like my serf's superior rating really isn't the way to go.

Just remember that when Suskie is tearfully screaming at you, "WHY DID YOU WAKE THE BEAST UP?????? HE JUST STRIPPED ME OF MY FINAL SHARD OF DIGNITY!!!!!"
BELISARIOS BELISARIOS - August 14, 2009 (02:09 PM)

What? We made the playoffs?!
overdrive overdrive - August 15, 2009 (12:30 PM)
BACK IN YOUR CAGE, BELI!!!!! You have writing to do!!!!
aschultz aschultz - August 15, 2009 (02:04 PM)
Zipp--maybe the foot in mouth bit was deadpan on purpose. Seems Overdrive is already going buck wild in this topic alone. I'd hate to be in a chat room discussing their strategy for this upcoming week.

Actually, I'd love it, especially if I had a copy of my review, which I believe would leave them feeling despondent and hopeless.

Belisarios, welcome! Good to see you here. Don't let silly old Overdrive push you around about this whole thinking up a good review, proofreading what you've got, or polishing an old one bit. Writing is ultimately about being YOURSELF, not taking orders from others!

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