I find it hard to care about every one of the 24 different Academy Award categories, so I'm just going to detail some of my thoughts on half of them. For each category, I'll list my personal order as well as mark with an asterisk the nominee I think will win on the night (i.e. my predicted winner). Oh, and there may be some commentary, too.

BEST PICTURE

1. Inception
2. Black Swan
3. The Fighter
4. The Kids Are All Right
5. The Social Network
6. 127 Hours
7. Toy Story 3
8. True Grit
9. The King's Speech *
10. Winter's Bone

How to Train Your Dragon was my favourite animated feature in part due to an absolutely killer final 20 minutes, but having two nominated would probably be an overkill, and I can understand why they went with Toy Story 3 as it was better paced and the tighter film. There were quite a few films that I enjoyed more than the artier The King's Speech and Winter's Bone, but apart from maybe The Town, they're not ones the Academy usually likes to recognise. Personally speaking, Winter's Bone was a little bit of a struggle to sit through. Great acting and a remarkable achievement given the measly budget, yes, but not really an enjoyable experience. And maybe it's because I don't give a shit about the monarchy, but I thought The King's Speech was overrated. That's not to say it wasn't a decent film, because it was alright - the interactions between Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush were actually fairly awesome. I just didn't care for the background politics or the time period.

Having said that, I wouldn't mind any of my top six winning the coveted prize. Of particular note, 127 Hours had the best ending. Excellently utilising Sigur Rós' "Festival", the build-up to and that euphoric moment so very, very nearly brought tears to my eyes. Danny Boyle's film was certainly the one that came closest to making me cry, and the 'victory' was way more satisfying than Bertie's final public address in The King's Speech. I remember exiting the cinema feeling incredibly happy. The Kids Are All Right and The Fighter had excellent ensembles and not a weak link among their casts. I heard mixed things about The Fighter from people I know - some saying Mark Wahlberg's character was too boring and overshadowed by Christian Bale's, others that it was too predictable - but I loved it. While Bale was immense, Micky Ward was far more relatable and I was fully invested in the journey he goes through. The highs of The Fighter, though, couldn't match that of Black Swan or Inception. Both of those films were similar in that the second half had my eyes completely glued to the screen. Black Swan absolutely nailed Nina's mental deterioration, which was no doubt boosted by Natalie Portman's surprisingly damn fine turn; and following Inception's five different realities while being treated to some brilliant set pieces proves that it's not impossible to make an intelligent action movie.

The King's Speech will most likely win. It's picked up the most nominations, I've been told Americans love British products, and it's got excellent post-Golden Globes momentum with a healthy batch of BAFTA nominations and notable wins at the DGAs and SAGs. I'd rather the other frontrunner, The Social Network, scoop the prize - not just because I prefer it as a film, but also because it's more topical and relevant in today's world.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
2. David Fincher - The Social Network *
3. David O. Russell - The Fighter
4. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen - True Grit
5. Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

Dude, no Nolan? Oh well. Tom Hooper will win as he also won the DGA award. I was more impressed with everyone else in this category, though, particularly Darren Aronofsky who actually made ballet appealing to watch. (Edit: I change my mind. David Fincher will win.)

BEST ACTOR

1. James Franco - 127 Hours
2. Colin Firth - The King's Speech *
3. Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
4. Jeff Bridges - True Grit
N/A. Javier Bardem - Biutiful

James Franco has the responsibility of carrying an entire film, and he pulls it off exceptionally well. Colin Firth, while also superb, wouldn't have been as good if he didn't have Geoffrey Rush supporting him. But Firth will win, because it's a more conventional performance and because I imagine some Academy voters feel a bit sorry for him missing out last year for A Single Man. Mark Wahlberg gave a convincing yet underrated performance in The Fighter and in my mind should have been nominated, though I've not seen either Biutiful or Blue Valentine, so I'm not going to moan about his snub too much.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Natalie Portman - Black Swan *
2. Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
N/A. Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
N/A. Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Annette Bening was great and all but is she getting more attention than her co-star Julianne Moore only because of that one 'realisation' scene? Moore's snub bums me out quite a bit - it's not the first time she's notably missed out, either. It doesn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things, I guess, as it'd be criminal if Natalie Portman doesn't leave without the Oscar. Though, to be fair to the others, she had the best content to work with.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Christian Bale - The Fighter
2. Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
3. Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech *
4. Jeremy Renner - The Town
5. John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

I tweeted that my highlight of the Oscar nominations announcement was Mark Ruffalo being recognised for his charming role on The Kids Are All Right, and I stand by that. I was worried he was going to be snubbed. A tough category, this. I can't quite decide who to root for; for me, it's a toss-up between Bale, Ruffalo, and Rush. I'll go with Christian Bale for now, as his performance in The Fighter was pretty amazing. The Academy will probably give the win to Geoffrey Rush. Bale may be drawing nearly all of the plaudits, but if it took this long for him to earn his first nomination, I predict an upset. Andrew Garfield missing out is notable. I guess I would've swapped him in for Winter Bone's John Hawkes, but only just.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams - The Fighter
2. Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
3. Melissa Leo - The Fighter
4. Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech *
N/A. Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

I don't think there's too much between Amy Adams and Melissa Leo in The Fighter. However, between Leo's odd ad campaign (she seems to be emphasizing 'her' as a person rather than the terrific acting performance she gave) and this year being the hugely talented Adams' third time nominated, I'm really hoping Adams will finally be rewarded. In some way, it'll be a shame and unfair if Hailee Steinfeld wins, because let's face it - she absolutely does not belong here. She's great in True Grit, but she should be fighting with Portman and Bening in the lead category and let Mila Kunis deservedly take the fifth slot, who shouldn't have been snubbed. (Edit: I now have a gut feeling that Helena Bonham Carter will complete the trifecta of acting wins for The King's Speech.)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Social Network *
2. Toy Story 3
3. True Grit
4. 127 Hours
5. Winter's Bone

I'm not usually confident predicting winners, but I'd be gobsmacked if Aaron Sorkin doesn't win for The Social Network. It's been said many times, but a movie about Facebook sounds like utter tripe. Yet, Sorkin with his trademark dialogue style managed to turn it into a fascinating character study of (a slightly fictitious version of) Mark Zuckerberg. Despite paling in comparison, Toy Story 3 and True Grit were also very smartly written.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Kids Are All Right
2. The King's Speech *
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
N/A. Another Year

Some people have said Inception's weakest element was its screenplay. I disagree with that. Casually explaining all the rules and dream states and whatnot to someone else is pretty darn tough, yet almost everything made perfect sense in the film. However, that said, it's hard to argue against the viewpoint that the other nominees boasted tighter writing. I predict a win for The King's Speech in this category for two reasons: firstly, the relationship between Bertie and Lionel was expertly penned and very warming; and secondly, the two characters come from different backgrounds (see: 2005's Crash, which also won this very award) - in this case, we have someone of royalty and a commoner. Personally, The Kids Are All Right gets my vote, contributed by excellently written characters, convincing family dynamics, and the way Ruffalo's character was handled.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. How to Train Your Dragon
2. Toy Story 3 *
N/A. The Illusionist

How to Train Your Dragon edged Toy Story 3 for me on a more emotional level. It also had the better finale. Definitely my favourite DreamWorks animated feature to date. I will admit, however, that Toy Story 3 was way better than I was expecting it to be. I thought it was a silly idea for Pixar to resurrect a beloved franchise from more than a decade ago; I didn't want to relive 1999. But Pixar cleverly got around that by making the series move forward in time, too.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Inception
2. The Social Network *
3. How to Train Your Dragon
4. 127 Hours
5. The King's Speech

Part of why How to Train Your Dragon's finale was that good was the epic score, so it's nice to see the film get recognised for that. I would love to see Inception win, but unfortunately, I predict The Social Network to be victorious as I fear the Academy might be put off by Inception's loud soundtrack.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Inception
2. The Social Network *
3. True Grit
4. The King's Speech
N/A. Salt

Black Swan's soundtrack is heavily inspired by Tchaikovsky, thus ruling itself out of the 'Original Score' category. However, the music in that film was excellent, and I was hoping the Academy would at least recognise it under this category, especially as it was also wonderfully mixed in with everything else - the noises, sound effects, speech, and so forth - to make the latter half so chilling and awesome to watch. But no dice. I'll be rooting for Inception instead, but again, I think The Social Network has the upper hand.

BEST EDITING

1. The Social Network *
2. Black Swan
3. The King's Speech
4. The Fighter
5. 127 Hours

That Inception ends up being coherent, exhilarating, and a treat to watch all at once is almost a miracle, and its snub in this category is baffling. And despite an amazing finale to 127 Hours, I felt the flashbacks and hallucinations could've been handled a bit better. Ultimately, The Social Network should win with the way it excellently handles bouncing around three different points in time while also making it pretty damn compelling.

PREDICTED WINNERS FROM THE REMAINING CATEGORIES

I've not seen any of the foreign, documentary, or short nominees. But hey, Killing in the Name and Let's Pollute sound like they tackle some serious issues. That means they're probably going to win, right? Right?! (Edit: Both of those predicted winners have since been changed.)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: In a Better World
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Inside Job *
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Strangers No More **
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: God of Love
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: The Gruffalo ***
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "If I Rise" - 127 Hours
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: True Grit
BEST SOUND EDITING: Toy Story 3
BEST ART DIRECTION: Alice in Wonderland
BEST MAKEUP: The Way Back
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: True Grit
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception

* Edit: Now Inside Job instead of Restrepo, because I don't know? But I recently found out that Matt Damon narrates, so yeah.

** Edit: Not Killing in the Name anymore. According to Wikipedia: "Strangers No More is a short documentary film about a school in Tel Aviv where children from forty-eight different countries and diverse backgrounds come together to learn." That sounds like something the Academy would swoon over.

*** Edit: Changed this from Let's Pollute to The Gruffalo on the basis that I've heard it's the only decent one in the category that also doesn't carry an Important Message.

Yeah, Americans (particularly those who vote for things like this) really do love British films. I count myself among that group. I find British film incredibly intriguing because it so typically emphasizes emotional payoff that runs deeper than the special effects budget. Obviously, there are exceptions on both sides of the Atlantic, but it's a general rule that still serves one fairly well. The hardest part of watching the typical British film is its lack of polish in other areas. British films that attempt special effects are particularly embarrassing and I've never seen one that overall felt as polished as its North American contemporaries. Most of that is probably due to nothing more than the editing process. Give me a British film with the right subject matter and actors and the final editing process (which Oscar voters are also happy to ignore) doesn't matter. That British film will be practically without peer.

Made five changes to my predictions, because why not?

* David Fincher instead of Tom Hooper.
* Helena Bonham Carter instead of Hailee Steinfeld.
* And three misc. awards at the bottom.

I'm gonna stick with my predictions, but I'm beginning to see why so many people wait until just before the ceremony to make their predictions. The King's Speech has inexplicably picked up momentum, Melissa Leo has a bigger shot now than she did before, Exit Through the Gift Shop is the documentary frontrunner, etc.